It is difficult to predict stock market performance and involves a certain amount of risk. An accurate prediction could result in a significant amount of profit. The stock market is influenced by a number of factors:
News, both domestic and international
Government reports
Natural disasters
The stock market is constantly evolving and it regularly generates a huge amount of data regarding bids, buys and puts. Data scientists have found out that using Big Data mining techniques and machine learning strategies, the movements in the markets can be predicted in a matter of seconds. Earlier, experts used to employ various methods to try to predict the stock market; however, with the advent of deep learning and data science, these predictions are quicker and more accurate than ever before. This significantly increases the profits of businesses and investors alike.
What are Stock Prediction Systems?
Stock prediction systems are programs that use algorithms to predict future trends in the stock market. The algorithms used in stock prediction systems were originally used for scientific research in fields such as genetics, astronomy and quantum physics.
However, scientists soon discovered that these algorithms can be applied to stock markets as the field produces huge amounts of data and follows some sort of pattern.
The most commonly used techniques in stock market prediction include genetic algorithms (GA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs).
The use of ANN methods for stock prediction has been found to be widely successful. The ANNs predict future lows by analyzing low price and time lags, while the future highs are predicted using lagged highs. These predictions are then used to determine stop prices for buying and selling.
Benefits of using a Stock Prediction System
Predicting stock market performance is challenging and risky. There are many factors to be considered – physical factors, psychological and behavioral factors. These aspects make share prices unstable and difficult to predict accurately. However, with the use of algorithms and data science, there has been improvement in the predictions. The following are some of the benefits of using stock prediction systems:
Using ANN systems, which utilize a classification approach as opposed to a traditional quantitative output approach, produces a better predictive reliability.
Certain kinds of data which could earlier not be collected or processed, like unstructured text data, can be used for making predictions which the help of algorithms. This unstructured text data refers to news reports or public sentiment. Use of Big Data techniques makes it possible to keep track of values, opinions and behavioral patterns of people while making predictions; this means that the predictions are not based solely on technical or numerical data.
Algorithms help in speedily processing huge amounts of data that is perishable. In the stock market, conditions are constantly and rapidly changing. This means that in order to predict future events in the market, a reliable and quick system is needed. Algorithms provide this benefit. Algorithms may use pre-processed data, reducing data storage space and speeding up the calculations.
Computer Trading Systems [http://computertradingsystems.com/] offers prediction systems for stocks, IPOs, ICOs, ETF indexes, bonds, Forex currencies as well as Cryptocurrencies. We are Harvard and MIT trained and have designed advanced algorithm programs that can predict the markets in the current conditions. We can teach you how to use our systems and websites to trade and make consistent profits in the markets.
The Big ‘Lies’ About Our Economic Prospects
In the spring of 2007 I hosted a conference for a group of insurance professionals. One of the most popular speakers was my old friend the economist Roger Martin-Fagg. He was his usual entertaining self, but took everyone by surprise by suggesting that the world economy was on the brink of a meltdown the like of which we had never seen before, and it was going to happen soon – probably within 12 months. Yes, he predicted the financial crash of 2008 a year before it actually happened.
Now in Spring 2007 the world economy was doing very nicely thank you. Following three consecutive years of good growth, averaging 3.8% it was expected to fall only slightly in 2007 to 3.6%. Meanwhile the UK was doing pretty well too. House prices had risen from an average of £150,633 in January 2005 to £184,330 in May 2007 – a rise of 22.4%, whilst wages grew by an average of over 5% per annum between 2004 and 2007. Inflation on the other hand was under control and only rose by an average of 3.25% in the same period. Furthermore, between 2003 and 2007 the FTSE All Share Index grew by 49%, so overall everyone was feeling pretty optimistic about the prospects for the future. No one, other than Roger was saying anything about a recession, never mind a full blown crash!
So, when Roger issued his dire warning, the overwhelming response was to laugh it off – in the same way that we would laugh at a soothsayer predicting the end of the world. Eccentric yes, and likely to happen eventually, just not anytime soon.
You can imagine that those of us who were there in 2007 are far less likely to write off Roger’s opinions now than we would have done previously.
I was therefore pleasantly surprised, and heartened to receive his latest Economic update, penned on 16 June. Once again he is at odds with the mainstream view, and indeed is critical of others talking world economic prospects down. He opens his piece by saying that the press is being irresponsible in the way it is reporting our economic outlook. His opening paragraph reads:
“Last weekend the Daily Telegraph had a banner headline: ‘Britain’s biggest ever collapse in GDP wipes out 18 years of growth’. This statement is completely wrong. I am concerned that individuals who are trying to make the right judgement call are being fed this nonsense. To be clear: 18 years ago our GDP was £1 trillion. It is now £2.2 trillion. The reduction in spending in April was 20% on the previous April. The monthly flow of spending averages £200bn. 20% of that is £40bn. The media, as we know, impact emotion and decision taking. That Telegraph article is therefore both economically illiterate and irresponsible.”
Wow! Hard hitting stuff. And the perpetuation of such comments is still evident a week later. In the Sunday Times on 21 June Sajid Javid is quoted as saying:
“We’ve seen a 25% fall in GDP in two months. To put that in some perspective, that is 18 years of growth wiped out in two months.”
And that’s from our erstwhile Chancellor of the Exchequer, who should be anything but economically illiterate!
In his update Roger goes on to suggest that, despite what the world and his wife are saying, we are not going to have a recession. Indeed, whilst he acknowledges that quarter 2 of 2020 will be significantly negative, he expects quarter 3 to be significantly positive, and predicts that the UK economy could grow by 8.5% in 2021, with the World economy back to 2.5% growth next year too.
His argument is that the fundamentals for a recession don’t exist in the same way as they did for previous recessions; rising prices and interest rates squeezing individuals and companies alike in 1979 and 1989, and banks stopping lending in 2008. The common factor is a shortage of money available, and that’s not the case this time around. Households have seen a reduction in income, but a larger fall in what they’ve spent, and the UK Government is spending an extra £40bn a month pumping new money into the system, so no shortage here. Roger predicts a mini boom to take off in the next few months as a result of this excess cash in the system, with the only thing that could dampen it being the media reporting company closures, an increase in the R well above 1, and stories of mass redundancies.
I don’t propose to reproduce all Roger’s arguments here – you can read the whole article at https://www.ellisbates.com/news/june-2020-economic-update/ to get the complete picture, but I would say his reasoning and logic are very persuasive. And I for one would not bet against him. I also fully endorse his condemnation of sensationalist reporting in the media. They have to take more responsibility for the message they send out as, rightly or wrongly, people do listen to them. A more even handed and less melodramatic approach to reporting would benefit us all. After all, we all know the power of ‘fake news’ by now, don’t we?
Sources of data:
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.07.II.C.2), released in January 2007 accessed on 21 June 2020
Office of National Statistics UK House Price Index, accessed on 21 June 2020
Office of National Statistics Wages and Salaries average growth rate percentage, accessed on 21 June 2020
Office of National Statistics RPI All Items: Percentage change over 12 months, accessed on 21 June 2020
Swanlowpark.co.UK FTSE 100 and FTSE All-Share since 1985, accessed, on 21 June 2020
Ellis Bates Financial Advisers are independent financial advisers with offices across the United Kingdom. They manage over £1 billion of assets on behalf of clients, who have given them a 4.9/5.00 score with Trustist. https://www.ellisbates.com/about/reviews/
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